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Why Investors Are Nervous Ahead Of FOMC

By Kathy LienForexSep 16, 2019 03:47PM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/why-investors-are-nervous-ahead-of-fomc-200465083
Why Investors Are Nervous Ahead Of FOMC
By Kathy Lien   |  Sep 16, 2019 03:47PM ET
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Kathy Lien, Managing Director Of FX Strategy For BK Asset Management

Daily FX Market Roundup Sept 16, 2019

There are four central bank monetary policy announcements on the calendar this week but the Federal Reserve’s is hands-down the most important. On Friday we talked at length about what to expect from FOMC and we’ll touch on that again tomorrow, the eve before the Fed meeting. However for now, we’d like to discuss the broad-based rally in the US dollar. The greenback strengthened against all of the major currencies except for the Japanese yen. The decline in USD/JPY is consistent with the sharp decline in treasury yields and sell-off in stocks. Investors are nervous ahead of the Fed meeting for a number of reasons. First the most recent piece of US data – the Empire State manufacturing index was disappointing. Secondly, last night’s Chinese economic reports fell short of expectations and lastly, the attacks on Saudi Arabia oil facilities has investors worried that it could escalate into a US attack on Iran.

The attacks are believed to have come from Iranian soil and shortly after the strikes, President Trump said the US military is “locked and loaded,” waiting to hear from Saudi Arabia “as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms we would proceed.” Iran dismissed US allegations as “unacceptable” and “baseless” and threatened to retaliate on US bases. Oil prices jumped well over 10% on the back of the attacks, shrugging off Trump’s decision to release oil from the US’ strategic petroleum reserve. While the actual disruption to the oil markets should be limited, the greater fear of armed conflict could keep oil prices and the Canadian dollar elevated. We expect USD/CAD to drop to 1.3150.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars are in focus as significantly weaker industrial production and retail sales numbers puts pressure on China to increase fiscal stimulus. The New Zealand dollar has been hit the hardest, falling for the fourth trading day in a row while softer Chinese data only stemmed the rise in A$. Part of this divergence can be attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s optimism. Tonight, the minutes from the most recent RBA meeting will be released and the overall strength of the Australian dollar reflects their optimism. When they last met in September, the RBA recognized global uncertainty but also said they expect growth to strengthen gradually to around trend. They also noted upward pressure on wage growth and signs of a turnaround in the housing market that should support spending. If the minutes are optimistic, AUD/NZD will extend to fresh 5-month highs. If they give investors any reason to believe that easing is still a possibility this year, A$ will extend its slide quickly, far outpacing the decline in NZ$.

Euro and sterling also fell sharply on Monday. The euro was hit by dovish comments from ECB member Lane who said the convergence of inflation toward their goal has recently slowed and may have partly reversed. The ZEW survey is scheduled for release tomorrow and while investors may be pleased with the massive stimulus packaged expected from the central bank, the German economy is still very weak. Sterling on the other hand continues to be pressured by Brexit risks. Johnson and Juncker agree that more intensive talks are needed but the possibility of a delay to the October 31 Brexit deadline has been put to question by Luxembourg leader Bettel who said he would only delay Brexit if the deadline serves a purpose. The UK and the EU need Luxembourg on board because the decision needs to be unanimous.

Why Investors Are Nervous Ahead Of FOMC
 
Why Investors Are Nervous Ahead Of FOMC

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David Mackay
David Mackay Sep 19, 2019 3:25AM ET
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Tres bien
Elnan Ogando
Elnan Ogando Sep 18, 2019 6:01PM ET
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not sure what happen to Kathy Lien's Analyst , but she was WRONG by a LANDSLIDE, sad to say yes i LOST 400.00 on her reporting on USD/CAD,,, she said ( We expect USD/CAD to drop to 1.3150. ),,when in 10 years,,,,
Uz IL
Uz IL Sep 17, 2019 7:18PM ET
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Thanks Kathy!
Adamo Nals
Adamo Nals Sep 17, 2019 2:33AM ET
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Try a corrction any day now. Which is healthy. Market going up ever day. Not. Fundamentals do not support current s&p price. 1-2% earnings growth haaaaa
Norbert Barigye
Norbert Barigye Sep 17, 2019 2:01AM ET
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Why do I think that the stock market is too rattled to rise anywhere above highs despite the possible rate cut already priced in? Saudi attack, US China tensions and Trump tweets...
Mik PM
Mik PM Sep 17, 2019 2:01AM ET
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trump tweet about easing trade deal, oil jumped and will correct. gold correcting. breakout on sp500 and dow imminent
Moe Zaw Hthik
Moe Zaw Hthik Sep 16, 2019 11:09PM ET
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Gold is Up or Down please
Erski Gumby
SB20 Sep 16, 2019 11:09PM ET
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You’re not getting any solid answers here Moe. You really need to learn to do your own research and analysis. Good luck!
Lara Kiri
Lara Kiri Sep 16, 2019 11:09PM ET
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Gold is up and down, then up again and down again. Sometimes more up than down and sometimes it is the opposite. Now make your own decisions.
Areeb Mehr
Areeb Mehr Sep 16, 2019 10:37PM ET
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Inspired
Irpan Supiandi
Irpan Supiandi Sep 16, 2019 9:55PM ET
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thanks kathy..
Partap Singh
Partap Singh Sep 16, 2019 9:09PM ET
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thank you Kathy
AMY gupta
Rambo1 Sep 16, 2019 6:39PM ET
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Attack coming from ? How you know?
Raoul Duke
Raoul Duke Sep 16, 2019 6:01PM ET
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That report may have been slightly relevant in 1930 .
Raoul Duke
Raoul Duke Sep 16, 2019 6:00PM ET
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The market is nervous because of the Empire State Manufactuting Index ????
Murti kemal
Murti kemal Sep 16, 2019 5:46PM ET
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well still down only 0.3%? where is the nervousness???
Naitsirc Aryen
Naitsirc Aryen Sep 16, 2019 5:41PM ET
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Norbert Barigye
Norbert Barigye Sep 16, 2019 3:08PM ET
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I wonder whether an imminent rate cut would imply a weakened dollar since it might already be priced in?
Igcokama Bath U Jb
Igcokama Bath U Jb Sep 16, 2019 3:08PM ET
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What is an imminent rate cut?
Stacey Beam
Stacey Beam Sep 16, 2019 3:08PM ET
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It will have little to no effect in and of itself. Rates are already below the fed rate.
Neo Koapeng
Neo Koapeng Sep 16, 2019 3:08PM ET
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its already priced in I would rather focus on the usd/cad for tomorrow and hold that sell until just about the announcement to make atleast +200pips
 
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