Breaking News
0

U.S Open – China GDP Falls To 6%, Turkey’s Win, Brexit Vote Looms, Oil Rises

By MarketPulse (Ed Moya)Oct 18, 2019 08:38AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/us-open--china-gdp-falls-to-6-turkeys-win-brexit-vote-looms-oil-rises-200475028
U.S Open – China GDP Falls To 6%, Turkey’s Win, Brexit Vote Looms, Oil Rises
By MarketPulse (Ed Moya)   |  Oct 18, 2019 08:38AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

U.S. stocks and the dollar little changed in early Friday trade despite a worse than expected third-quarter GDP reading from China and heightened uncertainty regarding how Brexit will unfold over the weekend and a temporary cease-fire between Turkey and Syria.

Asian markets sold off after China’s third quarter GDP figures showed the economy grew at 6.0%, the worst reading since A Few Good Men opened in theaters. Financial markets want answers on how serious this downturn will be. The trade war is having a strong impact and with global demand remaining vulnerable, we probably could see Chinese growth fall below the 6.0% next quarter. The rest of the Chinese data for September showed improvements with retails sales and industrial production.

Markets will likely remain fixated on the next critical face-to-face meeting between Presidents Trump and XI at the APEC Summit on November 16-17th. Stocks will struggle to break out to uncharted territory even if we see better than expected earnings results leading up to the key summit.

Turkey

The five-day ceasefire between Turkey and Syria initially was received as major de-escalation, but it really isn’t. Turkey is appears set to secure more of the border shared with Syria as the ceasefire is more of warning for Kurds to leave the area. This situation is likely to intensify next week and we could see lira weakness return.

Brexit

Boris Johnson has a tough job ahead of Saturday’s Parliamentary vote. He needs to convince MPs to vote for his Brexit deal or seek an extension of Article of 50. Johnson may choose to try to take UK out of the EU with a hard exit at the end of the month, but that may be less likely as he could lose that battle in the courts, thus giving up a lot of recently won political capital.

The upcoming Brexit vote is too close to call, but even if we see Johnson’s deal pass, this does not include a trade agreement so sterling’s gains would likely be capped around the 1.35 to 1.3750 region.

Oil

Saudi Arabia needs oil prices to rise much higher in order for them to go forward with Aramco IPO. It seems we are very far away from seeing this IPO happen, especially at the initially targeted value of $2 trillion.

Oil did not get any help from the Chinese GDP data that further cemented global growth concerns.

Why is oil higher? It seems a floor is in place for oil prices and expectations are growing that we could see OPEC + become more aggressive with their production cuts at the upcoming December. A very bullish sign for oil is how it performed after yesterday’s somewhat bearish EIA report.

Gold

Gold appears to be in ‘No man’s land’. The trade war is the gift that keeps on giving, but uncertainty on how much the Fed will fill the punchbowl has gold stuck in a range. Gold could remain stuck between $1,470 and $1,530 until the October 30th Fed meeting. The outlook should remain bullish for gold as the Fed will likely seek to deliver a market disruption and continue to support the Treasury yield curve.

Original Post

U.S Open – China GDP Falls To 6%, Turkey’s Win, Brexit Vote Looms, Oil Rises
 
U.S Open – China GDP Falls To 6%, Turkey’s Win, Brexit Vote Looms, Oil Rises

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email