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Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Defy Mounting China, Iran Risks; Oil Climbs

By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)Market OverviewJun 24, 2019 06:16AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/opening-bell-200434003
Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Defy Mounting China, Iran Risks; Oil Climbs
By Investing.com (Pinchas Cohen/Investing.com)   |  Jun 24, 2019 06:16AM ET
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  • U.S. futures buck growing U.S. tensions with China, Iran
  • Europe slides on business pessimism
  • FedEx-Huawei mishap, Hong Kong civil rights issue add to U.S.-China sticking points ahead of G20 summit
  • Oil extends rally on U.S.-Iran spat escalation

Key Events

Futures on the S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ 100 attempted to defy increasing geopolitical risks this morning—ahead of a much-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping and amid further escalation of the U.S.-Iran standoff. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo signaled the U.S. would pursue new sanctions and a "global coalition" against the Middle East oil producer on Monday, in the face of recent oil tankers and drones attacks—thereby further boosting WTI prices.

The STOXX 600 slid for a second day after after a profit warning by Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler (DE:DAIGn) and a dip in German business confidence to the lowest level since 2014 dampened sentiment. Even more impactful news came from China, which is seeking clarifications from FedEx (NYSE:FDX) on temporarily halting shipping of Huawei products. The Chinese telecom giant accused FedEx of a “vendetta” after the courier refused to deliver P30 Pro phones from the U.K. to the U.S. FedEx now runs the risk of being blacklisted by China as an “unreliable entity,” thereby adding fuel to the fire of a prolonged trade spat between the world’s two largest economies that saw a new peak in May when the White House barred U.S. firms from doing business with Huawei without a special licence.

As if that wasn't enough, the U.S. added five Chinese companies operating in supercomputing with military-related applications to its trade blacklist on Friday, citing national security.

Another stumbling block in U.S.-China relations is the thorny Hong Kong's extradition bill issue. China said on Monday it will oppose the addition of the recent face off between the Honk Kong government and millions of civil protestors to the G20 agenda. Meanwhile, calls are mounting from Hong Kong civil rights proponents that the U.S. passes new legislation to sanction their country's government.

In the earlier session, Asian shares were spared from the latest diplomatic salvo, with news on FedEx only becoming available to the public later in the day. All the major regional indices closed in the green on hopes that a Trump-Xi meeting during the G20 summit will mark a bottom to the past year's trade-led selloffs.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 outperformed rising 0.22%, with China’s Shanghai Composite right behind with a 0.21% gain—to the the highest level in almost eight weeks. Japan's Nikkei climbed 0.13%.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan edged 0.2% higher, hovering not far from Thursday's six-week high.

Meanwhile, another stumbling block in U.S.-China relations is the thorny Hong Kong's extradition bill issue. China said on Monday it will oppose the addition of the recent face off between the Honk Kong government and millions of civil protestors to the G20 agenda. And calls are mounting from Hong Kong civil rights proponents that the U.S. passes new legislation to sanction their country's government.

Global Financial Affairs

The S&P 500 slipped from an all-time high on Friday, raising the potential for a correction.

UST 10-Year Daily Chart
UST 10-Year Daily Chart

Yields on 10-year Treasurys fell again, potentially ending a return move after rates completed a bearish flag 10 days ago.

DXY Daily Chart
DXY Daily Chart

The dollar resumed a selloff, tracking yields, after extending a breakdown of its uptrend line of the year as well as the 200 DMA.

Elsewhere, gold hovered around Friday’s high price. Bitcoin bulls found resistance below $11,000 for the third day.

Up Ahead

  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the challenges facing the U.S. economy at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Tuesday.
  • Also on Tuesday, MSCI Inc. announces results of its 2019 Market Classification Review, including whether Kuwait gets upgraded from frontier to emerging-market status.
  • The Group of 20 two-day summit kicks off is in Osaka, Japan, on Friday.

Market Moves

Stocks

  • The Shanghai Composite ticked 0.2% higher, hitting the highest level in almost eight weeks with its sixth straight advance.
  • The MSCI Emerging Market Index advanced 0.1%, the highest level in almost seven weeks.

Currencies

  • The Dollar Index dropped 0.1%, hitting the lowest in almost 14 weeks with its fifth straight decline.
  • The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1382, the strongest in almost 14 weeks.
  • The British pound advanced less than 0.05% to $1.2742, hitting the strongest in more than five weeks with its fifth consecutive advance.
  • The onshore yuan slid 0.1% to 6.877 per dollar.
  • The Japanese yen slipped 0.1% to 107.43 per dollar, the largest decrease in more than a week.

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasurys fell less than one basis point to 2.05%.
  • The yield on 2-year Treasurys climbed less than one basis point to 1.77%.
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to -0.30%.
  • Japan’s 10-year yield increased one basis point to -0.15%.

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude leaped 1.3% to $58.15 a barrel, the highest in almost four weeks.
  • Iron ore fell 0.6% to $110.80 per metric ton, the largest fall in a week.
  • Gold advanced 0.1% to $1,401.53 an ounce, reaching the highest in almost six years on its fifth consecutive advance.
Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Defy Mounting China, Iran Risks; Oil Climbs
 

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Opening Bell: U.S. Futures Defy Mounting China, Iran Risks; Oil Climbs

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Fred Smith
Fred Smith Jun 26, 2019 7:48AM ET
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China is in the rearview mirror now. USA hasn't needed them. The tariffs collected are a bonus. I hope USA tariffs them on everything. We are getting a lot of things from same companies that left China, ie Vietnam
Daniel Tumusiime
Daniel Tumusiime Jun 25, 2019 8:05AM ET
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Great Analysis , thank you Cohen
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 25, 2019 8:05AM ET
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You're welcome, Daniel, and thanks!
dima edunov
dima edunov Jun 25, 2019 4:25AM ET
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nice one
Pinchas Cohen
Pinchas Cohen Jun 25, 2019 4:25AM ET
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Thanks, Dima
 
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